Brent crude has already surged past $125 a barrel in late April, with WTI trading close behind at approximately $120-122. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, cutting off nearly 18.3 million barrels per day of global supply. This represents the largest oil supply shock in market history, dwarfing even the Russian disruption of 2022. The IEA's emergency release of 400 million barrels — the biggest coordinated drawdown ever — is already running out of road, with perhaps 75 million barrels left to deploy in May and June. Commercial inventories are now draining at an unsustainable pace of 6-8 million barrels per day.
Oil futures still imply prices falling back to $88 by year-end — a scenario The Economist bluntly describes as "La-La land." American shale can add at most 300,000-700,000 barrels per day, but only after 3-6 months. Saudi spare capacity remains trapped behind the blockade. Diplomatic signals between Washington and Tehran remain deeply negative. With no deal in sight and inventories nearly exhausted, WTI looks firmly set for the $125-145 range through May — with significant upside risk if talks collapse entirely.
Sources: The Economist IEA; Kpler; Energy Aspects
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What Will Happen to WTI Crude Oil in May 2026?
Brent crude has already surged past $125 a barrel in late April, with WTI trading close behind at approximately $120-122. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, cutting off nearly 18.3 million barrels per day o
